Full feedback architecture of the semiconductor choke-point system. Geopolitics treated as endogenous. Click any loop card or node for detail. Solid coral arrows = reinforcing; dashed teal = balancing (delayed).
China leverage → controls → Western pain → reshoring → window closes → tighter controls. No natural dampener; checked only by B1/B2 with multi-year delays.
US controls → China domestic investment → capability → US perceives threat → tighter controls. Ratchet structure. No natural ceiling.
ASML supernormal profits → R&D reinvestment → High-NA EUV → reinforces monopoly. Self-reinforcing dominance flywheel.
Scarcity → price spike → refining investment → supply relief. 3–7 yr delay means R1 runs several cycles before this fires. Classic overshoot structure.
Price pain → R&D → substitute → demand relief. 5–12 yr delay. Only loop that permanently breaks a choke-point. Highest uncertainty.
Throughput pain → capex → new fab capacity → output relief. 3–5 yr delay. US grid queue now the binding constraint — adds another 5+ yr layer.